The U.S. government has a spending problem. Is negotiating with the country's credit rating a way to fix it?

VIEW IN BROWSER | NEWSLETTERS

CNBC

THU, MAY 04, 2023

ON THE OTHER HAND
Jon Fortt
@jonfortt

Should Congress Use the Debt Ceiling as a Bargaining Chip?

 
 

Did someone forward you this newsletter? Click here to subscribe.

With the Fed rate decision behind us, investors can turn their attention to other market-moving challenges, including the battle in Washington over the debt ceiling. A key question: Should Congress use the debt ceiling as a bargaining chip to rein in spending? Jon Fortt is here to weigh in.

JON:

“I can't believe we're even talking about this. This is like, should I threaten to burn down the house if my kid won't clean his room? No!

No, that's definitely not something you should do.

 

First, what is the debt ceiling?

 

Also called the debt limit, it's the amount the U.S. Treasury is allowed to borrow to pay the nation's bills. As a country, we're spending more money than we bring in — which is bad — so it's like we're paying utilities by putting it on a gigantic credit card. The problem is, the card Treasury uses is maxed out — and only Congress can raise the credit limit.

 

I know what you're thinking: Time for some tough love. Cut up the credit card. OK, sure. But failing to raise the debt ceiling isn't cutting up the credit card. Why? Because Congress approved all this spending in the first place. By threatening not to raise the debt ceiling, it's just threatening not to pay the credit card bill on time. For spending Congress approved. You know what happens when you skip a card payment? Your credit score drops, you have to pay higher rates to borrow again, and you don’t get to live in the nice neighborhoods.

 

So no. Congress should not use the debt ceiling as a bargaining chip. That would be like threatening to ruin your own credit score to control your spending. Dumb.

 

Is Congress going to realistically slow the pace of spending any other way?

 

JON:

“On the other hand, I hate to say it but it's perfectly fine for Congress to use the debt ceiling as a bargaining chip.

Because apparently nothing else works.

 

Here's how bad things are: The national deficit, fiscal year-to-date? More than $1.1 trillion, according to the Treasury Department. We had $2 trillion in revenue coming in, 3% less than last year. And we spent $3.1 trillion, 12% more than last year. And that's just for one year. The total national debt is nearly $31.5 trillion.

 

So. The fundamental threat to the full faith and credit of the United States isn't about paying the bills on time this year. It's our addiction to spending.

 

Making matters worse, the fixes for today's economy are worsening tomorrow's deficits. The Fed raised the benchmark rate a quarter point to get inflation under control. But that also means the government now will have to pay out higher interest on debt, making the deficit harder to close.

 

All of that adds urgency to the mission of cutting spending and maybe raising revenue in these tough times, both of which would be unpopular. Because let's be clear. Revenue means raising taxes, which Republicans want to keep low. And a lot of the spending is in entitlement programs, which Democrats want to keep high.

 

This debt ceiling drama will give each party cover to make essential but unpopular compromises.

Enjoy this newsletter? Forward it to a friend. Click here to subscribe.

Vote in the LinkedIn poll and join the debate!*

*Why LinkedIn? On the Other Hand is about civil debate that illuminates the relevant facts. We've found that LinkedIn does a good job fostering that kind of environment.

 

On the Other Hand is Jon Fortt's weekly segment on Squawk Box, Thursdays in the 7 a.m. ET hour. He's been writing it just about every week since August 2020. The second (or first) argument each week isn't necessarily the one Jon agrees with. He just makes an honest effort to construct the best argument he can for each side. 

 

When he's not debating himself, Jon co-anchors Overtime at 4 p.m. alongside Morgan Brennan. Jon also researches and writes the weekly Working Lunch segment on Power Lunch, Fridays in the 2 p.m. ET hour, where he introduces viewers to founders and CEOs through their origin stories and strategic goals.

 
 
LinkedInYouTubeTwitter

Unsubscribe

Digital Products

Manage Newsletters

Feedback

Terms of Service

Privacy Policy

Join the CNBC Panel

© 2023 CNBC LLC. All rights reserved. A property of NBCUniversal.

 

900 Sylvan Avenue, Englewood Cliffs, NJ 07632

 

Data is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes. Global Business and Financial News, Stock Quotes and Market Data and Analysis.

 

Data also provided by THOMSON REUTERS