Traders are now betting the Fed will deliver an “insurance” rate cut at its July meeting to give some cushion to the longest economic expansion ever.
History shows that such a move can be great for the stock market and that’s why the S&P 500 is hitting a new high. The first rate cut by the Fed in an easing cycle leads to a stock market rally 100% of the time, according to data compiled by Fundstrat going back to 1971. But there’s a catch. For that to happen, the economy must not fall into a recession — which is hard to tell most of the time — including right now.
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