EDITOR'S NOTE
You don't need an economist to tell you that economic activity collapsed in the second quarter, and that the numbers reflecting this plunge are going to be bad.
CNBC's Jeff Cox, however, writes about the worst forecast for the quarter that we've seen so far. The Atlanta Federal Reserve has a tracking tool for the nation's gross domestic product called GDPNow. It's currently showing a 52.8% tumble.
To be sure, the tracker is constantly revised, and other economic sources are predicting the percentage decline in GDP will be in the 30s. But whatever it is, it's not going to be pretty and the downturn could last a while. "We don’t expect that real GDP will recover back to its Q4-2019 record high until late 2022,” Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research said in his morning note Tuesday. 
And yet the stock market continues rallying, having already discounted a really bad quarter. Equities were up Tuesday, despite civil unrest across the nation, on hopes of increased activity as the economy reopens amid the ongoing coronavirus pandemic.
The S&P 500 is now up 40% from its pandemic low.
Not all the bets on Wall Street are imbued with such optimism. CNBC's Patti Domm writes that some investors are wagering on a market sell-off after the election. There are negatives for the market no matter who wins, observers say.
“People are afraid of a Democratic sweep," said Julian Emanuel, head of equity and derivatives strategy at BTIG. "They’re afraid of a Republican sweep, and there is literally no election outcome that isn’t seen as creating more risk.”
Subscribe to CNBC PRO for exclusive insights and analysis, and live business day programming from around the world. TOP NEWS
TOP VIDEO
CNBC PRO
SPECIAL REPORTS
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
