![]() Disney shares were trading more than 3% lower to roughly $170 after analysts at Barclays downgraded their rating on the stock to equal weight from overweight with a lowered price target of $175.
The analysts downgraded the stock after becoming more cautious about Disney’s ability to hit its long-term streaming guidance.
“This year…Disney+ growth has slowed significantly, despite launching new franchise titles, day and date movie releases and Star+. Part of this slowdown could be a function of growth pull forward into 2020 and promo roll offs, but we believe it could be due to structural factors capping growth,” the analyst said in their note.
“In order to get to its long term streaming sub guide, DIS needs to more than double its current pace of growth to at least the same level as Netflix. We believe this may be tough to do,” the note added.
Some of the key issues Barclays raised were the low title count on Disney+ (and how engagement on the Disney+ could struggle without more volume) and the ability of Disney’s franchise-based content strategy (which does so well with theatrical distribution) to translate into subscriber growth.
We think the downgrade is very thoughtful and analytical in thinking, raising the question of does Disney need to fine-tune its content strategy? However, we can't help but take the other side of the trade.
Our take is that we think it is way too premature to suggest Disney’s long-term streaming guidance is already out of reach, especially after management reiterated its conviction in its targets not too long ago. They are the ones with the best visibility into the content pipeline and they know what is in store for the future.
And management’s word when it comes to direct-to-consumer has been as good as gold. The company has done nothing but over-deliver on its streaming journey thus far (we remind you that the Disney+ launched nearly 2 years ago), and if there is one company we have the confidence in to deliver the type of high-quality content necessary to gain and retain subscribers in volume, it is Disney.
Our approach to today’s pullback?
We would be adding to our Disney position this afternoon on weakness if we were not restricted from trading it. We think the upcoming quarter is pretty much de-risked following CEO Bob Chapek’s subscriber growth comments at the Goldman Sachs 30th Annual Communacopia conference, and we still believe margin expansion at the parks is being underappreciated by the market.
This pullback to $170 looks like a solid opportunity for long-term oriented investors to start or add to a position, with the full understanding that more clarity around the content pipeline content will be needed on the next earnings call to get the stock working again.
As a reminder, we cannot buy the stock today because we are restricted from trading any stock that Jim mentions on TV for three full days following the mention. Although we cannot make the trade for the Charitable Trust, our restrictions will never prevent us from telling the Investing Club what we would buy or sell and when we would do it.
The CNBC Investing Club is now the official home to my Charitable Trust. It’s the place where you can see every move we make for the portfolio and get my market insight before anyone else. The Charitable Trust and my writings are no longer affiliated with Action Alerts Plus in any way.
(Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust is long DIS.)
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