![]() After you receive this post, we will be selling 125 shares of United Parcel Service (UPS) at roughly $198.15. Following the trade, the Charitable Trust will own 725 shares of UPS, representing 3.67% of the portfolio.
As a reminder, we will always wait 45 minutes after we publish a trade alert before executing the trade. By waiting, we presume that Investing Club members will receive a better price in the market than what we do.
Shares of United Parcel Service are pushing higher Thursday and have now rallied roughly 10% from their October lows. What’s notable about the move is that UPS is now trading roughly $10 per share above where it was before FedEx reported that nasty earnings report that weighed heavily on the group. We think this move back near $200 per share represents a solid level to book some profits here.
We don’t consider ourselves to be traders, but periodically we like to trade around our positions during volatile stretches. If we added to our position on the dip (in this case, we added to UPS on August 2nd under $192), our discipline says that we should peel off that stock and then some after it rallies.
Trading around the core position:
This is our style. We call it trading around the core position. By managing a position this way, we’ll give ourselves plenty of room to buy lower should the stock tumble on some non-fundamental reason, and if the stock rallies here we will capture the upside with our core position.
We will lock in an average gain of about 19% on lots we bought in September 2020 on this sale.
We would trim Ford as well:
In addition, we would be trimming Ford and right-sizing the position into today’s strength if we were not restricted from trading. Ford hit a new 52-week higher earlier Thursday after another analyst came out positive on the stock. That’s two days in a row of positive analyst activity if you are keeping track at home.
Shares rallied Wednesday after Credit Suisse upgraded Ford to an Outperform with a $20 price target, and Ford is on the run again today after JPMorgan increased their price target to $20 from $18 despite lowering their earnings per share forecast for 2021 and 2022.
Even though we tend to agree with the long-term thinking of the analyst calls, we think it is only right to capitalize on this cluster of positive analyst activity by trimming our position. Our concern is that sentiment may have become too positive ahead of earnings. We prefer to buy stocks of high-quality companies with positive fundamentals when sentiment gets too negative, like back in July when the charitable trust added to our Ford position at around $13.17, which represented a more than 15% pullback from June peak.
Ford became our largest position:
In addition, we think the time has finally come to right-size this position. As of today, Ford is the largest position in the charitable trust at roughly 5.2%. It earned this distinction because it has been such a significant outperformer year to date, gaining 85% compared to the 20% move in the S&P 500, and 15% since the start of October.
After this incredible run, we think it is only right to right-size the position, meaning reduce the weighting to a level that is in line with other positions that carry a similar risk/reward profile.
Despite our updated view on Ford the stock, we remain huge believers in the turnaround orchestrated by CEO Jim Farley and how he has made Ford a much more profitable company with an exciting electric vehicle future.
As a reminder, we cannot buy the stock today because we are restricted from trading any stock that Jim mentions on TV for three full days following the mention. Although we cannot make the trade for the Charitable Trust, our restrictions will never prevent us from telling the Investing Club what we would buy or sell and when we would do it.
The CNBC Investing Club is now the official home to my Charitable Trust. It’s the place where you can see every move we make for the portfolio and get my market insight before anyone else. The Charitable Trust and my writings are no longer affiliated with Action Alerts Plus in any way.
(Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust is long UPS, F.)
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