![]() Two of our holdings are on the move today. For one, we feel like investors should book some profits now if they haven't already. For the other, the market is clearly coming back around on the stock, and we need to do some more research.
Walmart getting hit:
Walmart (WMT) was the subject of a negative tactical trading call ahead of earnings by analysts at Evercore ISI.
“While we expect 3Q earnings will be good…we believe management is likely to keep their full year guidance unchanged…due to increased margin headwinds and macro risks. A beat, not raise quarter suggests the street’s 4Q earnings estimate of $1.48 has modest downside. With the stock having run up 7% in the past month, we think the stock is more likely to fade the news rather than break out to new highs,” the Evercore analysts wrote in their note.
We like Walmart for the long-term and believe they are doing quite well right now, but we do not think this Evercore call is misplaced. If you look back to the past eight Walmart earning releases, six were met with a negative stock price reaction even as five of those six reports beat the consensus. History is on Evercore's side.
So how are we managing our WMT position in light of this negative call?
We are pretty torn. We think Walmart will be a holiday season winner because its size and scale should support a better inventory position compared to smaller retailers who may struggle with their supply chains. Also, Walmart is almost through a major investment year and we expect to see some margin benefit in 2022.
On the other hand, stocks often trade in a pattern, and for whatever reason, Walmart has a pattern of being faded on earnings. It's hard to fight that, especially with the stock trading near its highs approaching the report. Walmart reports earnings next week on Tuesday.
Bottom line on Walmart:
You might remember how we trimmed our Walmart position on October 26th at around $148 - $149 after the stock climbed near its 52-week high.
The stock has not done much since then. If we did not make one sale already, we would probably let some stock go as a hedge that history might repeat itself.
Mastercard popping:
In other news, Mastercard (MA) held its Investor Community Meeting this morning. At the event, the company highlighted their strategic priorities in payments and how they plan to drive growth in consumer purchases, capture new payment flows, and create opportunities through new technologies and shifting payment preferences.
Management also laid out its long-term performance objectives for the 2022 to 2024 period. Mastercard expects a net revenue compound annual growth rate in the high teens with annual operating margins of 50% at a minimum and an earnings per share compound annual growth rate in the low twenties.
Bottom line on Mastercard:
The market is clearly liking the strong forecast and what Mastercard had to say with shares up nearly 4% this afternoon, but we’ll get the full scoop on the story later tonight when Jim sits down with CEO Michael Miebach on “Mad Money.”
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(Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust is long WMT, MA.)
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