Sometimes the stocks say it all. When I went over about 1,000 stocks this weekend, I was astonished to see that the stocks with the strongest charts were those in the most offensive categories. Whether it be levered steel companies, homebuilders, aggressive retailers, or, of course, every oil company, there’s a pattern of amazing strength.
Banks big and small have also been rallying, which appears to be about fewer bad loans. Their strength says: “We don’t need to worry about defaults because the consumer is holding up.” No wonder Club holding Wells Fargo (WFC) is a stand out. So is JPMorgan Chase (JPM). They are the two big banks that are at a cross section and hold a ton of loans and deposits. The collective judgment of the market is that both firms will make good on those loans.
It’s the kind of brawn that indicates the Federal Reserve is going to slow interest rate hikes, meaning we may see a mild recession this year at worst.
