Some people have their "mystery brokers" where they get special market insight. I have my handyman.
He showed up to assemble a "Pop-A-Shot" this morning. He was not thrilled about this assignment (kids toys, we agreed, are the worst). I joked he should consider a desk job. "No way," he replied. He's got his handyman jobs; a consulting business (that surprised me); and he trades futures, he said. At which point my ears perked up.
"What do you trade?" I asked, disclosing my own line of work. His answer: the S&P 500, and oil. He showed me the levels he's watching right now. For a while, he would short the S&P every time oil was above $80 for three days or so. Although lately that relationship, he noted, has broken down.
He thinks we're heading for a good bit more upside on the S&P before a big retrenchment, perhaps sparked by election anxiety. He's negative on Nvidia, thinking it could drop 50%. His preferred trades: Amazon and Alphabet. Also Square (now called Block), which has been forming a base for years and could break out to the upside, he thinks.
In fact, he has his own acronym of favored stocks: BATMAN. Block, Amazon, Tesla (he's sticking with it for the self-driving and robotaxi potential), Meta, Alphabet, and Netflix. Let's see how it stacks up against other portfolios (like the AI plays, or Tim Seymour's "GRANOLA") over time.
But what I was mulling as I listened to him was that despite widespread pessimism about the economy, optimism--or at least retail involvement--with the stock market is still pretty high.
Jim Paulsen wrote about this today. "Both consumer sentiment and small business optimism remain stuck near historic recession-like lows. Debt ratios are being reduced in the household sector...credit growth remains subpar, money market fund holdings have surged...today's cultural mindset remains remarkably depressed and mostly cautious," he observed. To him, that's a sign that this secular bull market can still last for several more years, until euphoria is reached.
And yet, the high school kids are all trading Nvidia, and my handyman has a better handle on the market than some pros do. If that's not the sign of a top yet, I can't wait to see what is.
See you at 1 p.m!
Kelly
